How has graduate unemployment evolved since 2008? We situate trends in graduate unemployment in the contexts of improved graduation rates, the shifting composition of graduates, the broader labour market, and public expenditure on higher education.
A forum for economic policy debate
Econ3x3 promotes analysis and debate on unemployment and employment, income distribution and inclusive growth in South Africa. It publishes accessible research- and expertise-based articles and provides a forum for engagement between research and policy making. We invite contributions from economists and other social science researchers, policy advisors and independent experts.
Hannah McGinty, Emma Whitelaw
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Pippa Green
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Hannah McGinty, Emma Whitelaw
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Zimbali Mncube, Liso Mdutyana
Are budget cuts the only option to reduce the deficit and cut the national debt? Or has the main economic challenge been misstated?
Andrew Donaldson
The number of personal income taxpayers and aggregate taxable income increased strongly between 2011 and 2017 despite a slowing economy. These both declined during the Covid period and have since recovered, though more slowly than in the earlier period. In 2023, there were 7.6 million taxpayers above the threshold, up from 5.9 million in 2011. What role has tax policy played in the resilience of the tax base – and what do the trends indicate about progress towards a more inclusive economy?
Philippe Burger
The South African constitution is considered progressive and transformative in intention due to its inclusion of socioeconomic rights, such as the right to education, food, and h
Wandile Sihlobo
The avian flu currently spreading across South Africa has raised concerns about the potential uptick in food inflation. However, it may be too early for such fears, and it is not clear how long or widespread this effect will be. Moreover, the various interventions being considered by government could lessen the impact on both consumers and the domestic poultry industry.
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Editor's Corner
Andrew Donaldson
In this opinion piece on South Africa’s unemployment crisis, Andrew Donaldson argues that while structural reforms are needed to raise growth and broaden development over the longer term, an employment-oriented economic strategy is the central challenge in present times.
Viewed through an elementary growth accounting lens, South Africa’s frontiers of labour-intensive production should be steadily moving out, bringing unemployed human resources into economically useful occupations. We have abundant physical and mental human capabilities searching for work.
However imperfect the adjustment (“tâtonnement”) process, economic theory implies that there should be progress towards full employment, and higher output should flow from the mobilisation of otherwise unutilised capacity. And if markets don’t generate this result, it is a policy coordination function.
It is not that constructive applications are hard to identify. Houses need to be built, roads repaired, food markets expanded, clothing and furniture supplied, safety and security improved, water sources protected, children cared for.
It is not that we lack the know-how or technological capabilities required: these are activities in which knowledge is readily available and there is clear evidence of under-utilised productive capacity. To put unskilled labour to work, we do not need to overcome technological barriers in artificial intelligence, biosciences or big data processing.
It is not that higher production to meet domestic consumption needs might have unsustainable fiscal or balance of payments effects: in horticulture, timber and related products, light manufacturing, and a wide swathe of commercial and hospitality services there are growth opportunities in tradeable goods and tax revenue will flow from expanded activity.
Of course, there are complementarities in the resource combinations required to expand economic activity: engineering skills accompany artisanal capabilities and physical effort on building sites and floor managers oversee the organisation of work in restaurant kitchens and clothing assembly lines.
But the best available theories of skills development suggest that it is the application of learning by “doing” that is the proximate driver of productivity and skills acquisition.